🔥 Fire
| Tier | Bet Team | Opponent | Market Line (bet team) | Model Fair (bet team) | Edge (pts) | Buy Pts | Buy To | Price Est | Max Price OK | EV OK | p(now) | p(target) | p(final) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | +6.5 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | +6.5 | -110 | -242 | ✅ | 70.8% | 65.0% | 70.8% |
| Fire | Cleveland Browns | Minnesota Vikings | +3.5 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | +3.5 | -110 | -182 | ✅ | 64.5% | 65.0% | 64.5% |
| Fire | Las Vegas Raiders | Indianapolis Colts | +7.0 | +1.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | +7.0 | -110 | -204 | ✅ | 67.1% | 65.0% | 67.1% |
| Fire | Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals | +7.5 | +0.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | +7.5 | -110 | -241 | ✅ | 70.7% | 65.0% | 70.7% |
| Fire | Cincinnati Bengals | Detroit Lions | +10.5 | -0.6 | 11.1 | 0.0 | +10.5 | -110 | -410 | ✅ | 80.4% | 65.0% | 80.4% |
| Fire | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | +7.5 | +2.9 | 4.6 | 0.5 | +8.0 | -99 | -188 | ✅ | 63.8% | 65.0% | 65.3% |
👀 Watch
| Tier | Bet Team | Opponent | Market Line (bet team) | Model Fair (bet team) | Edge (pts) | Buy Pts | Buy To | Price Est | Max Price OK | EV OK | p(now) | p(target) | p(final) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watch | Baltimore Ravens | Houston Texans | +1.5 | -1.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | +3.0 | -77 | -182 | ✅ | 60.2% | 65.0% | 64.6% |
| Watch | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | +3.5 | +0.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +5.5 | -66 | -185 | ✅ | 59.1% | 65.0% | 65.0% |
| Watch | New York Jets | Dallas Cowboys | +2.5 | +0.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +5.0 | -55 | -183 | ✅ | 57.3% | 65.0% | 64.7% |
| Watch | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 | +1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +6.0 | -55 | -182 | ✅ | 57.2% | 65.0% | 64.6% |
🗑️ Garbage
| Tier | Bet Team | Opponent | Market Line (bet team) | Model Fair (bet team) | Edge (pts) | Buy Pts | Buy To | Price Est | Max Price OK | EV OK | p(now) | p(target) | p(final) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garbage | Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles | +3.5 | +2.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | +7.0 | -33 | -182 | ✅ | 54.1% | 65.0% | 64.5% |
| Garbage | Washington Commanders | Los Angeles Chargers | +3.0 | +1.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | +7.0 | -13 | -191 | ✅ | 53.8% | 65.0% | 65.7% |
| Garbage | New York Giants | New Orleans Saints | +2.0 | +1.3 | 0.7 | 4.5 | +6.5 | -2 | -189 | ✅ | 52.0% | 65.0% | 65.4% |
| Garbage | Miami Dolphins | Carolina Panthers | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | +4.0 | -101 | -186 | ✅ | 50.1% | 65.0% | 65.0% |
Best Parlays
Parlay win prob = product of legs’ win probs; buy points shown per leg.
Top 3-Leg Parlays
| Legs (matchup · side · Buy Pts → Buy To) | Parlay Prob | Parlay Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.2% | +596 | EV ✓ |
| 38.2% | +596 | EV ✓ |
| 38.1% | +596 | EV ✓ |
Top 4-Leg Parlays
| Legs (matchup · side · Buy Pts → Buy To) | Parlay Prob | Parlay Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.0% | +1228 | EV ✓ |
| 26.3% | +1299 | EV ✓ |
| 26.0% | +1228 | EV ✓ |
Top 5-Leg Parlays
| Legs (matchup · side · Buy Pts → Buy To) | Parlay Prob | Parlay Price | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17.6% | +2570 | EV ✓ |
| 17.4% | +2436 | EV ✓ |
| 16.9% | +2570 | EV ✓ |
📋 All Games
| Tier | Bet Team | Opponent | Market Line (bet team) | Model Fair (bet team) | Edge (pts) | Buy Pts | Buy To | Price Est | Max Price OK | EV OK | p(now) | p(target) | p(final) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | +6.5 | -0.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | +6.5 | -110 | -242 | ✅ | 70.8% | 65.0% | 70.8% |
| All | Cleveland Browns | Minnesota Vikings | +3.5 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 0.0 | +3.5 | -110 | -182 | ✅ | 64.5% | 65.0% | 64.5% |
| All | Las Vegas Raiders | Indianapolis Colts | +7.0 | +1.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | +7.0 | -110 | -204 | ✅ | 67.1% | 65.0% | 67.1% |
| All | Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals | +7.5 | +0.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | +7.5 | -110 | -241 | ✅ | 70.7% | 65.0% | 70.7% |
| All | Cincinnati Bengals | Detroit Lions | +10.5 | -0.6 | 11.1 | 0.0 | +10.5 | -110 | -410 | ✅ | 80.4% | 65.0% | 80.4% |
| All | New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills | +7.5 | +2.9 | 4.6 | 0.5 | +8.0 | -99 | -188 | ✅ | 63.8% | 65.0% | 65.3% |
| All | Baltimore Ravens | Houston Texans | +1.5 | -1.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | +3.0 | -77 | -182 | ✅ | 60.2% | 65.0% | 64.6% |
| All | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | +3.5 | +0.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +5.5 | -66 | -185 | ✅ | 59.1% | 65.0% | 65.0% |
| All | New York Jets | Dallas Cowboys | +2.5 | +0.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +5.0 | -55 | -183 | ✅ | 57.3% | 65.0% | 64.7% |
| All | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Seattle Seahawks | +3.5 | +1.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | +6.0 | -55 | -182 | ✅ | 57.2% | 65.0% | 64.6% |
| All | Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles | +3.5 | +2.2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | +7.0 | -33 | -182 | ✅ | 54.1% | 65.0% | 64.5% |
| All | Washington Commanders | Los Angeles Chargers | +3.0 | +1.8 | 1.2 | 4.0 | +7.0 | -13 | -191 | ✅ | 53.8% | 65.0% | 65.7% |
| All | New York Giants | New Orleans Saints | +2.0 | +1.3 | 0.7 | 4.5 | +6.5 | -2 | -189 | ✅ | 52.0% | 65.0% | 65.4% |
| All | Miami Dolphins | Carolina Panthers | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | +4.0 | -101 | -186 | ✅ | 50.1% | 65.0% | 65.0% |